Student Visa Refusal Rates in 2026: The Numbers, Where They Come From and What They Do Not Show

The headline numbers and their sources

Three sets of figures are in circulation, from three different calculations:

• 2025-26 refusal rate: 21.8%. Calculated by Australian migration law firm One Planet Migration Law from the Department of Home Affairs dataset BP0015, "Student visa grant rates" on data.gov.au: 94,315 refusals out of 431,842 decisions. The figures cover the Student visa (subclass 500) and the older subclasses 570 to 576.
• July and August 2026 refusal rate: 30.8%. From the same dataset, with data locked at 31 August 2026: 15,976 refusals out of 51,940 decisions.
• August 2026 grant rate: 75.5%. Reported by ICEF Monitor on 1 October 2026 as the primary-applicant grant rate for August, which it describes as the lowest since 2006-07. ICEF cites the Home Affairs student visa statistics.

The Department defines the grant rate as the number of visas granted divided by the sum of visas granted and refused. The refusal rate is 100% minus that. Only decisions are counted: applications that are withdrawn or still waiting are not part of either figure. The Department calls the figures provisional and says they can change between releases. The 30.8% figure is a two-month rate, so it is more volatile than a full-year one. We have not opened the BP0015 file ourselves; the 21.8% and 30.8% figures are as calculated by the firm.

Differences by nationality

ICEF Monitor reports that, for Indian offshore applicants, 51% were granted in August 2026, compared with 72% in August 2025, based on Home Affairs' student visa statistics. That is a single month for one nationality and one application location, and the numbers are small enough in some months to move sharply.

We have not independently checked other nationality figures, and we do not repeat any. Grant and refusal rates by country depend on the mix of providers and courses, the evidence presented and the department's own integrity settings, so a nationality-level rate is not a rate for any one applicant. The immigration minister, Tony Burke, said in a 17 September 2026 question session, as reported, that some of the rise reflects tighter checks on financial capacity. We have not seen the department's own breakdown of refusal reasons, so we do not say which criteria drive the increase.

The ART backlog

Refused applicants can often apply to the Administrative Review Tribunal for review. Education policy analyst Andrew Norton, writing on 5 October 2026, reports that the ART had "a backlog of 53,347 student visa appeals" as of 31 August 2026, citing the Tribunal's statistics page. He gives the Tribunal's official indication of the median processing time to decide a student visa refusal review as 17 months and adds that this "might be too low". Those figures are as reported by Norton, citing the ART; we could not load the ART's statistics page.

The backlog matters for planning because a student visa review is a long process and a person's circumstances in the meantime, including their lawful status in Australia, depend on their individual visa history. The ART's own pages and the decision letter set out what applies.

How the genuine student requirement fits in

Student visa applications are assessed against, among other criteria, the Genuine Student requirement, which replaced the Genuine Temporary Entrant test on 23 March 2024. Applicants answer questions in the online application, each with a word limit (150 words per question), and the decision-maker considers whether the applicant is a genuine student. Common areas that a refusal letter may refer to are how the course connects with prior study and work, the applicant's circumstances in the home country, their reasons for choosing the provider and Australia, and their financial capacity.

Our guide to the genuine student test explains the requirement. We do not know from public data how many refusals are on the genuine student criterion compared with financial capacity or other criteria, so we make no claim about the split.

What a refused applicant can check

A refusal notice is the starting point, and it states the criteria the decision-maker found were not met and any review rights. In general terms, people in this position check:

• The reasons in the refusal letter. Which criterion, and what the decision-maker said about the evidence.
• Review rights and the deadline. Under section 347 of the Migration Act the time to apply to the ART is 28 days from notification in most cases, and 14 days if the applicant was in immigration detention when notified. The Tribunal generally cannot extend the migration time limit, so the date in the decision letter is the one to rely on. The ART review fee is $3,727 for fees paid on or after 1 July 2026, with a reduction available in some circumstances. See our guide to ART appeal deadlines.
• Whether a reapplication is possible. A new student visa application costs the visa application charge ($2,500 for higher education and VET from 1 July 2026, as reported by ICEF). Since 2 October 2026, holders of 17 temporary visa classes, and in some cases applicants whose visa has ended, must lodge a student visa application from outside Australia, so where a person is when applying matters.
• Their current visa status and any bridging visa. Check the visa conditions and expiry date in VEVO.

Whether to seek review or reapply is a decision for each person, and a registered migration agent or other qualified adviser can explain how it applies to a particular case. Reviews are also reported to be decided on the papers, without a hearing, for certain temporary visa refusals since 18 May 2026; that is as reported by a migration firm and we have not checked it against the legislation.

What the data does not show

The figures above are decisions, not applications, and they are population-wide:

• A 21.8% or 30.8% refusal rate is an average across providers, countries, courses and application locations. It says nothing about the chance of any one application.
• The rate counts only decided applications. It does not show how many applications were withdrawn, or how long applicants waited.
• Two months of 2026-27 data is a short window, and the Department says the figures are provisional.
• We do not have the Department's reasons data, so we cannot say which criteria changed.
• The figures do not show the effect of the 2 October 2026 reforms, which came after the data period.

The Department's own pages and data.gov.au are where updates will appear. This page will be updated when new monthly figures are published.

What was the student visa refusal rate in 2025-26?

21.8%, according to a calculation by One Planet Migration Law from Home Affairs dataset BP0015 (94,315 refusals out of 431,842 decisions). The Department says its figures are provisional.

What is the refusal rate for July and August 2026?

30.8%, from the same dataset: 15,976 refusals out of 51,940 decisions in the first two months of 2026-27, as calculated by the same firm.

What does the 75.5% figure mean?

ICEF Monitor reports that the primary-applicant grant rate fell to 75.5% in August 2026, the lowest since 2006-07, citing Home Affairs' student visa statistics. The grant rate is grants divided by grants plus refusals.

How long is the ART backlog for student visa reviews?

Andrew Norton reports, citing the ART, 53,347 student visa review applications at 31 August 2026 and an official median of about 17 months to decide a refusal review, which he says may be too low.

What is the deadline to apply to the ART after a student visa refusal?

Under section 347 of the Migration Act, 28 days from notification in most cases, and 14 days if the applicant was in immigration detention when notified. The Tribunal generally cannot extend the time, so check the date in your decision letter.

Does a high refusal rate mean my application will be refused?

No. The rates are averages across all applicants. Each application is decided on its own evidence against the criteria, including the genuine student requirement.