Net Overseas Migration Targets for 2026-27: The Numbers, the History and How NOM Is Measured

The targets

The media release of 17 September 2026 and the Home Affairs summary page say the new measures "are designed to deliver the Net Overseas Migration forecasts in the Budget of 245,000 in this financial year and 225,000 in 2027/28." The financial year referred to is 2026-27.

The Minister also changed how the figure is described. In the National Press Club question session he said: "For most of my political life, net overseas migration has been viewed as a Budget forecast. Last couple of years, people have talked about it as a Budget target. … I do think we need to be able to have these additional tools to make sure that what is published and forecast is reached." On 11 October 2026 he told Sky News: "We've now accepted and this is the first time for anyone who's held my portfolio in history, that the budget projections are now expected to be delivered."

The Minister also said that part of NOM is outside government control: "The nature of this portfolio has always been we are dealing with some aspects of net overseas migration over which the Government does not, and never should, have control." Student planning levels were described as unchanged.

A widely repeated claim says 225,000 would apply "each year thereafter". The primary sources name 2027-28 only, so we do not state that.

The latest ABS figures

The ABS released National, state and territory population, March 2026 on 17 September 2026. Key figures:

- Australia's population was 27,921,150 at 31 March 2026.
- Population grew by 392,700 (1.4 per cent) in the year.
- Natural increase was 100,600 and net overseas migration was 292,100.
- NOM fell by 17,400 (5.6 per cent) on the year to March 2025, when it was about 309,500.
- In the year to March 2026, 557,500 people immigrated to Australia and 265,400 emigrated.
- In the March 2026 quarter alone NOM was 101,000, up 44,900 on the December 2025 quarter.

The quarterly figure rose from the previous quarter, but the annual number is what the targets are compared with. The 2026-27 financial year runs to 30 June 2027, so there is no ABS figure for it yet, and the 2025-26 figure (year to June 2026) had not been released at the time of writing. Do not compare the annual figure to March with the financial-year target as though they were the same period.

NOM since 2019

These are ABS annual NOM figures for the year ending in each quarter shown, from the ABS series in the March 2026 release. Later figures are preliminary and subject to revision.

- Year to December 2019: 247,620
- Year to June 2020: 192,703
- Year to December 2020: -4,957
- Year to March 2021: -94,326
- Year to June 2021: -84,930
- Year to December 2021: 9,304
- Year to June 2022: 207,912
- Year to December 2022: 437,857
- Year to September 2023: 555,798 (the highest in the series after the pandemic)
- Year to December 2023: 530,620
- Year to June 2024: 429,162
- Year to December 2024: 330,458
- Year to March 2025: 309,493
- Year to June 2025: 301,572
- Year to December 2025: 298,870
- Year to March 2026: 292,137 (published as 292,100)

The 2023 figure is the one the media release refers to when it says NOM fell "47 per cent from the post-Covid peak in 2023". Using the ABS series, 292,137 is about 47 per cent below 555,798. That is our arithmetic on ABS numbers, and it matches the release.

The pandemic years show NOM can be negative. In the year to March 2021 more people left than arrived.

How the ABS measures NOM

The ABS article Measuring Net Overseas Migration in Australia explains the method. NOM is "a demographic concept which reflects the number of people added to (or subtracted from) the Australian population due to international migration." It is measured quarterly and "based on international border crossings. Not all border crossings result in a migration – most reflect short-term travel."

The rule is the 12/16 month rule. A person who is not already resident is added to the population if they travel to Australia and remain present for 12 months or more of the following 16. An Australian resident is removed if they leave for 12 months or more. The ABS says that because it is based solely on time in or out of the country, "NOM estimates include all people regardless of their initial reason for travelling, country of citizenship or visa status; however foreign diplomatic personnel and their families are excluded."

Two consequences follow:

- NOM is not a visa program number. It includes Australian citizens and New Zealand citizens moving in or out, as well as temporary visa holders, permanent migrants and others. Government migration program planning levels are a different measure.
- Recent figures are modelled. Because 16 months must pass before actual outcomes are known, preliminary NOM "is modelled on migration behaviours of like travellers from 12 months earlier". Preliminary figures are revised each quarter for four quarters. The ABS warns that recent policy changes "may not immediately be fully reflected in preliminary NOM".

So the most recent quarters in the table above can move. The ABS notes that all data after 30 June 2021 are subject to revision.

What each side says

Labor: the Government says its measures, including student and working holiday changes, are designed to meet the 245,000 and 225,000 figures. The Minister said in the question session that the advice at that point was that the numbers were tracking to the Budget level, and "as you'd see with today's net overseas migration, we've actually tracked below, below the most recent Budget forecasts."

Coalition: on 6 October 2026 the Opposition Leader, Angus Taylor, announced a plan for NOM of 100,000 in each of the first two years of a Coalition government, then 130,000 in year three and 160,000 in year four (reported by the ABC). One Nation announced a plan for a negative NOM for three years then a ceiling of 130,000 (reported by the ABC). See our side-by-side of the Coalition and Labor policies.

The Minister has also said the lower levels in other parties' plans would harm services and the economy. The Coalition says its plan would be budget neutral. These are positions, not findings, and no modelling for the Coalition plan has been published as at 12 October 2026.

The Minister's other figure, that Australia will be about 700,000 people smaller in 2030-31 than pre-pandemic forecasts, is his claim and we do not treat it as data.

What is not decided yet and what to watch

- The ABS releases NOM quarterly. The next release will include the June 2026 quarter and the full year to June 2026, the first full financial year figure ending before the 2026-27 target year begins.
- Revisions to the March 2026 figure as actual migration outcomes become known.
- Whether further measures are announced to hit the target. Several announced changes, including the working holiday ballot, the 485 graduate family change and visitor visa no further stay condition, have no start date as at 12 October 2026.
- Measures that need legislation, such as the expression of interest system for demand-driven visas, which the Minister says he cannot introduce without new law. No bill had been introduced as reported to 2 October 2026.

For how the Migration Program planning levels differ from NOM, see our pages on planned versus delivered program numbers and on Australian immigration statistics.

What are the Government's NOM targets?

245,000 for 2026-27 and 225,000 for 2027-28, per the 17 September 2026 media release and the Home Affairs summary. The Minister described the Budget forecasts as now expected to be delivered.

What was NOM in the latest ABS release?

292,100 for the year to 31 March 2026, released on 17 September 2026. It was about 309,500 the year before. The March 2026 quarter was 101,000.

What is the 12/16 month rule?

The ABS counts someone as a migrant arrival if they spend 12 or more of the following 16 months in Australia, and a departure if a resident spends 12 or more of 16 months away. It applies regardless of visa or citizenship.

Does NOM include only visa holders?

No. The ABS says NOM includes all people regardless of reason for travel, citizenship or visa status, except foreign diplomatic personnel and their families. That includes citizens and temporary visa holders.

Why can the numbers change after they are published?

Recent quarters are preliminary and modelled on travellers from 12 months earlier. They are revised each quarter for four quarters, until they are based on actual migration outcomes.

Is NOM the same as the Migration Program planning level?

No. The planning level is the number of permanent places set in the Migration Program. NOM is a population measure of people who stay or leave for 12 months, including temporary visa holders and citizens.

How far has NOM fallen from its peak?

Using the ABS series, the year to September 2023 was 555,798 and the year to March 2026 was 292,137, about 47 per cent lower. The Government's release uses the same 47 per cent figure.