Net Overseas Migration vs Housing Completions: What the Australian Data Actually Shows
Migratio Editorial · Last updated
TL;DR: Australia's net overseas migration was 306,000 in 2024-25, down from a peak of 538,000 in 2022-23. Over the same year, new dwelling completions ran at approximately 172,000-176,000. Average household size is 2.5 persons. The implied housing demand from migration alone (NOM divided by household size) was roughly 122,400 dwellings in 2024-25 — but this is a derived comparison, not one the Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes directly, and net migration is not the only driver of housing demand.
As at 12 October 2026: the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported net overseas migration of 292,100 for the year to 31 March 2026 (release of 17 September 2026), and the Government says its measures are designed to deliver Budget forecasts of 245,000 for 2026-27 and 225,000 for 2027-28. Earlier figures on this page were accurate when published. See Net Overseas Migration Targets for 2026-27: The Numbers, the History and How NOM Is Measured. The relationship between migration and housing supply is one of the most-debated empirical questions in Australian public policy. This article presents the actual numbers — Net Overseas Migration (NOM) from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, dwelling completions from ABS Building Activity Australia, household size from the 2021 Census — and explains how to compare them properly. The ABS does not publish a direct migration-vs-housing comparison; the comparison below is a derived calculation using primary-source inputs, and the article notes what the calculation does and does not show.
| Where you look | NOM | Dwelling completions | Implied demand from NOM alone | Headline gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 (peak) | 538,000 | ~175,000 | 215,200 | -40,200 shortfall |
| 2023-24 | 429,000 | ~172,000-176,000 | 171,600 | +2,400 ≈ balanced |
| 2024-25 (current) | 306,000 | ~172,000-176,000 | 122,400 | +50,000 surplus |
Net Overseas Migration: 306,000 in 2024-25, down from a peak of 538,000
Net Overseas Migration (NOM) is the ABS measure of the net annual flow of people into Australia who have lived here for 12 of the previous 16 months. It includes permanent migrants, temporary visa holders (students, Subclass 482 workers, working holiday makers) and Australian citizens returning home, and subtracts everyone in the same categories who leaves. NOM was 306,000 in 2024-25, according to the ABS Overseas Migration release published 19 December 2025. Arrivals were 568,000; departures were 263,000. NOM peaked at 538,000 in 2022-23 as deferred-COVID student and worker arrivals returned in bulk, eased to 429,000 in 2023-24, and fell again in 2024-25. The 2024-25 figure remains well above the long-run pre-COVID average (around 230,000-240,000 for most of the 2015-2019 period) but is well below the post-COVID peak.
Housing completions: 172,000-176,000 in 2023-24
Dwelling completions in 2023-24 ran at approximately 172,000-176,000 new homes nationally according to ABS Building Activity Australia data, with two slightly different figures circulating depending on calendar-year vs financial-year cuts and how 'completion' is defined. The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council's State of the Housing System 2024 report separately records 172,000 dwellings completed in calendar year 2023 — the lowest annual total in a decade — which is close to but not the same measurement period as the financial-year figure above. Both readings are materially below Australia's National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million well-located homes over 5 years (240,000 per year), and well below the volume needed to keep pace with the 2022-23 NOM peak. The shortfall is structural: completions in 2024-25 are projected to be similar to or slightly above 2023-24, against a NOM that is now lower but still well above pre-COVID levels.
The implied demand calculation
The most common derived calculation in this debate divides NOM by average household size (2.5 persons per the 2021 Census) to estimate net new dwellings required to house net migration alone. For 2024-25's NOM of 306,000, that produces an implied demand of around 122,400 net new dwellings. Against approximately 172,000-176,000 completions, this is a surplus of roughly 50,000 dwellings for migration-driven demand — but this calculation is incomplete in three important ways. First, migrants are not the only driver of net new household formation: domestic household formation (young people leaving home, separation, ageing-related downsizing into smaller dwellings, etc.) typically accounts for the majority of net household growth. Second, the calculation assumes new migrants form independent households at the same rate as the existing population, which they do not (international students in particular often share accommodation at higher density). Third, completions are not evenly distributed across markets — Sydney, Brisbane and Perth completions can be running well below their share of NOM at the same time as Adelaide and regional markets are oversupplying.
What the data does and does not show
The data shows a real structural relationship: Australia is completing fewer dwellings than implied total household demand (migration plus domestic formation) and has been for several years. It does not show that migration is the sole or even primary driver of housing affordability problems. The bigger empirical questions — how much of national rent growth is attributable to migration vs. domestic shifts, how much of price growth is attributable to supply constraints vs. monetary policy and investor demand — are not answerable from these two figures alone. The Reserve Bank of Australia, the Productivity Commission and the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council have each published more nuanced analyses that decompose housing demand into its component drivers. Readers wanting to engage seriously with the migration-housing debate should look at those analyses rather than relying on a single NOM-divided-by-household-size calculation.
How this article was researched
Primary sources: ABS Overseas Migration release, 19 December 2025; ABS Building Activity Australia (quarterly); ABS Census 2021 Household and Families; National Housing Supply and Affordability Council State of the Housing System 2024 report. The household-size figure (2.5 persons) is the average for occupied private dwellings at the 2021 Census, down from 2.6 in 2011; the Reserve Bank's separate survey-based measure of average household size has recorded lower readings since, close to 2.5. The derived implied-demand calculation in this article is Migratio's own working — the ABS does not publish a direct NOM-vs-completions comparison. Citation of any figure on this page is welcome with a link to the underlying primary source.
Frequently asked questions
What was Australia's net overseas migration in 2024-25?
306,000 according to the ABS, down from 429,000 in 2023-24 and from a post-COVID peak of 538,000 in 2022-23. Arrivals were 568,000 and departures were 263,000.
How many new dwellings did Australia complete in 2023-24?
Approximately 172,000-176,000 dwellings, depending on the specific data cut. This is below the National Housing Accord target of 240,000 per year over the 5-year window 2024-2029.
Does net overseas migration directly determine housing demand?
No — net migration is one of several drivers of housing demand. Domestic household formation (young people leaving home, separation, ageing into smaller dwellings) typically accounts for the majority of net new household formation in any given year. Migration's contribution depends on the migrant cohort's household formation rate, which is typically lower than the existing population's, particularly for international students who often share accommodation at higher density.
What is the implied housing demand from 2024-25 net migration?
If you divide 306,000 (NOM) by 2.5 (average household size at the 2021 Census), the implied demand is approximately 122,400 net new dwellings. Against the 2023-24 completion figure of roughly 172,000-176,000 dwellings, this is a surplus of around 50,000 dwellings for migration-driven demand alone. The shortfall in housing supply relative to total demand is therefore largely driven by domestic household formation, not by net migration in isolation.
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Related: Australian Immigration Statistics: 11 Years of Official Data · Australia's 2025-26 Migration Program: 185,000 Places, Explained · How Long Does Australian Citizenship Really Take? · Where Australia's International Students Actually Go After Graduation · Net Overseas Migration Targets for 2026-27: The Numbers, the History and How NOM Is Measured